Hey everybody, we are currently witnessing the great liquidation hunt. Markets are a little bit rattled. We’ll get into why that is in a minute. Bitcoin has fallen literally in just one day from 106,000, I think, and changed to 100,700. It’s lost over 5,000 in a matter of hours, but that’s how this game works. We’ll talk about some of the good news behind it as well. So again, don’t be shaken out, don’t be rattled; it’s just the nature of the business that we are in. The crypto market cap is $3.64 trillion, still high. Bitcoin, as I mentioned, is just above 10,500, and it’ll probably bounce from here because there is so much stacking happening and there’s not a lot of selling happening by long-term holders. Even if there was, it’s been bubbled up by the ETFs and other players. We’ll dig into all that today, and the real story today as well is how can Bitcoin reach a million by the year 2027? Is that even possible or is it just nuts or an extreme opium hit? Well, let’s dig into all that. Fear and greed is 81, and let’s go.
The Impact of the FED on Markets
It’s weird. It always cracks me up how much of an impact the FED actually has on markets because this is triggered by the Fed. When the FED takes an action, like start talking a bit hawkish, like we’re going to cut rates less in 2025, the market freaks out. Then the market makers jump on and take this opportunity to exacerbate the fear. That’s where we are right now. This is a disclaimer, not financial advice. Thank you all for coming and shout out to Patreon as well that help make this show every day. I wish I discovered your channel earlier, but it’s better late than never. Thank you, Mahmud. I’ll have to wait for your next recommendations. I will go to the moon. I joined Patreon a few months ago.
Bitcoin’s Potential to Reach a Million by 2027
This is the key thing about this stage of the market. Normally, the opportunities are fewer and further between after the markets have gone up 5x, 10x, 15x all across the board. So beware everybody, this is a time where you start getting more conservative, you start stacking some cash, you start hedging maybe a little bit, maybe taking some profits. We will dig more into that another day as well. Let me check on the markets. Yeah, we’re hanging in there. Okay, so thank you, Mahmud, as well. Let’s get into Bitcoin news. First of all, this is a Bitcoin exclusive video. Let’s get into why the markets are tanking. The FED basically has said, yeah, they cut rates by 25 basis points. Normally, after that happens, the markets react in a positive way, but the Fed was hawkish. They said there will be fewer rate cuts in 2025. They said in code, if you read between the lines, the labor market is bad, which it is really, really bad. Real estate is the weakest sector out there for sure. All indexes are down, everything is tanking across the board. But again, just because of words out of one man’s mouth, nothing changes in the market at all. But the market has a huge overreaction. When you’ve been seeing this stuff for like 35 years, you learn to be very calm, like the guy in the GIF that’s on a roller coaster with his hands in the air smiling. Anyway, that’s how you should all be now.
Bitcoin’s Trajectory: Could It Hit a Million?
This is an interesting study that got my attention this morning. This is a study from a couple of really, really good people in the space. They believe Bitcoin could hit a million dollars by 2027 using a new adoption pricing model. Again, I’m a very big believer in things like Metcalfe’s law, adoption, usage, etc. They spoke about a whole bunch of different metrics taken into one paper, one study written by these two gentlemen as well: Dr. Murray A. Rudd and, of course, Dennis Porter from the Satoshi Action Education Committee, both in Portland, Oregon. They’re forecasting Bitcoin price trajectories using a supply and demand framework. Literally, at the end of the day, everything comes down to supply and demand and adoption and money flow. All right, that’s very important.
Understanding Lost Coins and Demand Multipliers
There are a couple of things I found very interesting in this paper. As I speak right now, Bitcoin is bottoming out. It’s th000 bucks over the bottom it had a few minutes ago. But there’s a couple of things that I thought were very profound in the paper. First, they had a thing called the lost coins, which I’ve been talking about for years. They do not know the exact number of lost or permanently huddled Bitcoin, i.e., Satoshi wallet, but they did plug in some numbers. They had Satoshi wallet of 1 million stash, 1 million Bitcoin, and the number of lost coins is 4 million. So per me, I have the Satoshi stash is somewhere between 1.04 million and 1.1 million. And yes, at least 4 million coins are lost, and more Bitcoin are lost every day. That’s why I say there’ll never be more than 15 million Bitcoin. So when people start saying 21 million, 21 million, it’s nonsense. Never be more than 15 million. A lot are lost forever, and a lot of boating accidents and such.
ETFs and the Future of Bitcoin
The other cool interesting thing about this paper was they had a demand multiplier, which I’ve been talking about, the IA multiplier for years too. But they had a couple of interesting things. Basically, if the base price at 1X demand multiplier, i.e., no withdrawals, they expect the price to go to 62,116. But as the demand multiplier increases, the price of Bitcoin rises significantly. For example, the 40x multiplier would take the price to 2.56 million dollars. If the withdrawal reduces the liquid supply, that can go up a lot higher as well. So I’ve decided I’m going to take some of the elements of the paper and compare them to my methodologies and see where we get to, to see exactly is a million dollars by 2027 possible. First of all, before we go in, I’m going to look at just one buyer of Bitcoin, and that is the 9 US ETFs and how much they’ve been stacking on average per day since January 11th, 2024. The numbers are quite staggering. You can see iBit here, they’ve been pulling in about 2,289 Bitcoin for 226 straight days. On average, Fidelity is 877 Bitcoin. Remember, there’s only 450 a day. Fidelity is sucking in double the miner production, and the miners aren’t selling now as well. That is, if you add all these together, that’s 3,800 Bitcoin per day gobbled up. You multiply that by 3 years out to the year 2027, assuming 2025, 2026, 2027, that is 750 trading days.
Exploring Bitcoin’s Future Price Potential
My point here is if the ETFs continue to gobble at this rate, that will suck in 2.9 million Bitcoin. The question is, are there 2.9 million Bitcoin available for sale? I don’t know. There’s only 15. Can somebody shake 3 million of that 15 million loose? Yes, probably at the right price. We’ll have to see. So I decided to take this knowledge with my old multipliers and see what would shake out if only the 9 ETFs are buying and nobody else. Using this and my multiplier of 21, which is the base, assuming this amount is spent, not necessarily the 3 million Bitcoin bought, because as the demand gets tighter, the price will go up, that’s clear. But the money flow, I’m assuming it is constant at this rate currently from just the 9 ETFs, and there were no other buyers. That would mean the spend over three years times 21, the impact to market cap would add about 6.224 trillion to the market cap. You divide that by the number of Bitcoin, that would add 414,000 to the current price. That would take us to $57,900, and that’s a big ROI, 47% from today’s price in 3 years. Again, assuming only one buyer and the current rate of long-term holder selling. If we change the multiplier, we double the 21 to 42, which is my other benchmark, that takes the price to $932,500, which is nearly a million bucks. So theoretically, if only the 9 ETFs continue to purchase Bitcoin at this rate, we could theoretically hit that million dollars in 3 years.
The Role of Institutional Investment
What happens if we increase the multiplier? The thing gets harder as more is bought, less supply becomes available, and the demand far outstrips the supply, and the price goes crazy pretty fast. If we go to 112, which perhaps I estimated to be 56 2 * 56 multiplier is 112, that would take the price of Bitcoin to 2.3 million. Not going to say that’s going to happen, but theoretically, if the money flow continues at the rate that the current ETFs are buying, sustained for the next 3 years, they’re the only buyer, and the long-term holders continue selling at this rate, and the multipliers is 112, that’s the price we should see. Where all this goes, either way, it’ll be fun to watch, ladies and gentlemen.
Bitcoin’s Scarcity and Economic Implications
Now, they also referenced this number 3.8 million from Kathy Wood’s target, and Kathy Wood had a price prediction of 1.5 million for Bitcoin by the year 2030. But she said if institutions allocate 5% to Bitcoin, that adds an additional 2.3 million on top of the 1.5, which takes the price to $3.8 million. Crazy 3.8 million is not far from this number here, 2.3.16 million, again, just on those ETFs. We’ll see what happens. Bitcoin heading lower, 100,700 as we speak, 1,600. Yeah, they’re hunting the liquidity. They should nearly be done right now from the liquidity map I see. Anyway, that’s the paper. Who knows what’s going to happen? Bitcoin is scarce. It’s hard. We’ve never seen an economic experiment like this with such a stock to flow. Again, stock to lows, 112 years, and it’s only going to get longer and longer as more time goes on. So craziness indeed.
Bitcoin’s Adoption and Accumulation Trends
Shout out to Didi as well, another cool piece of Bitcoin news. Bitcoin or broke Dutch man sells house in hope of cryptocurrency boom. This is Didi. He’s famous. He’s nomadic, runs around the world with his family, and they sold their $300,000 house in 2017 for 100 Bitcoin. Now, what’s interesting is they can buy back that same house today with just four Bitcoin and save the other 96 Bitcoin because that house today is now worth 400,000. It’s gone up 100,000, but it’s gone from 100 Bitcoin to just four Bitcoin in price, which is fascinating to think about. Imagine if you had held the $300,000 in a bank account from 2017; they’d have far less purchasing power today. Again, that’s the difference of Bitcoin just since 2017, which again is fascinating.
Nation-State Involvement and Future Prospects
I have spoken a bit about just the nine ETF stacking, but there are more firms stacking. We’ll get to some of the on-chain stuff in a minute. But rumors are coming out now, fit, fast, and furious from VC rumors that UAE, which is Dubai, United Arab Emirates, now hold $40 billion worth of Bitcoin. Nation-state FOMO has begun, and remember, there’s a lot of chatter and talk about other nation-states coming into the game like the United States, like Poland, like Russia, and on and on and on, on top of some of the existing players like El Salvador.
Bitcoin’s Black Hole: The ETF Effect
Let’s get into some charts. This is, first of all, the Bitcoin black hole. We’re going to look at the ETFs and how much they are sucking in because it is startling and it’s accelerating all the time. First of all, this fellow, Black Rock, Larry Fink, bought 3/4 of a billion dollars on Bitcoin yesterday on a down day, $751 million to be precise, on a day when Bitcoin price is falling like now. Okay, it was 106,000 a few hours ago, now it’s 1,600, so it’s lost nearly 6,000 in a few hours. But that’s just the nature of this beast. I know people get stressed, but let’s look at some more numbers. The ETFs have pulled in over $6 billion in just 12 days, and the majority of that is the number two line on the chart there, and that is iBit, Black Rock. They are the ones doing all the snacking, absolutely insane. Black Rock is also red here on the chart. I talk about the big third phase of accumulation that’s happening right now as we speak, and that phase three is far larger than phase one at the very beginning and far larger than the tiny little accumulation period in the summer. They are stacking more and more as the price goes up. I shouldn’t say that now because the price is low, $100,000, but still, it’s up an awful lot from where we started. Craziness.
Bitcoin’s Growing Institutional Adoption
Now, over 60,000 Bitcoin have been purchased so far in December, again, in just 12 days, 60,000. And there’s other people buying too, and they’re buying really hard. We’ll get into some of those in a minute. Let’s look at some charts. Bitcoin chart time. Now, unfortunately, I couldn’t have many bad charts, got one which is kind of like a bad chart, but it’s not a really bad chart, but I had to stick something in there. So here we go. This is from Glassnode. This looks at the two to five-year holders, and they’re holding static. The two to five-year holders of Bitcoin have an average price between 20,000 and 50,000, and they have not been selling. The people who have been selling are the people that got into the game in less than 2 years. They are the ones taking profits, they’re the short-term speculators and traders, and they are kind of in and out. Now, even though we got above that psychologically important $100,000 level, which we still above right now as I speak, this is supported by a huge consistent inflow of capital. So despite the fact that the long-term holders started selling at 990,000 profit-taking, it didn’t matter. Bitcoin still shot up to 108,000 because the buyers of the ETFs far exceed the actual long-term holder sellers. Again, it’s not a retail game anymore. I want people to understand that, and the people that are in long-term, like you go two years plus back all the way to 14 years, they’re hauling. They know where this is going. It’s the tourists that drop in and say, you know what, I’m going to get a little taste of this Bitcoin, grab a little piece and say, I made 30%, I’m out. I made 50%, I’m out. Boom. That’s just the nature of the speculators, which are very important for a market anyway. So that’s the good news, and this supports the thesis of how Bitcoin could really get to a million dollars. I don’t know if it’s going to be 2027 or 2030 or 2032, but it’s most probably going there somewhere along those lines.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Future and Market Sentiment
Let’s get into the good charts, even though that wasn’t a bad chart. There’s a lot more. First of all, the demand is not. I shared this briefly yesterday, but it’s a beautiful chart from Crypto Quantum. It shows you the perspective of how fast the Bitcoin Black Rock ETF has grown compared to the Black Rock Gold ETF. Absolutely stunning. The Black Rock Gold ETF is 33.2 million, and it took 21 years to get there. The Bitcoin ETF took 226 days to get to $58 billion. Again, startling, absolutely bonkers as they say. Now, two weeks ago, this is a chart I shared two weeks ago exactly on this video, exactly two weeks to the day. There’s 1.07 million Bitcoin in Bitcoin ETFs, just the nine of them, 103 billion non-chain holdings. Well, fast forward to today, two weeks later, boom, there’s 1.14 million Bitcoin in these ETFs, and the on-chain holdings are $120 billion. That’s gone up nearly 20% in two weeks, and that gives you another perspective of how fast these things are stacking, which is stunning.
There’ll be a Bitcoin-only playlist up here afterwards if you only like Bitcoin-only content, subscribe to that one. What happened? This should not be here. There’s more charts, a lot more charts. First of all, social sentiment, Bitcoin is also topping the social buzz sentiment. This is the amount of mentions on social media every single day. As of yesterday, the total amount of mentions for Bitcoin is 283,000. Co is an institutional game now. It’s an ETF game, it’s a treasury game, it’s a pension game. It may not be as much as a retail game, but it’s still heavily mentioned, and Bitcoin is number one on social sentiment. Solana is number two, and Ethereum number three. Craziness, XRP is number four, and yeah, a lot of money has been flowing into XRP, but that’s a measure of the sophistication of the investors out there.
MicroStrategy’s Strategic Moves and Global Trends
Now, back to who else is stacking. Michael Saylor has been on the TV quite a lot lately, and this was a screenshot of one of the channels he was on, CNBS or Fox or something, I can’t remember. I just grabbed it, and it looked at the amount that they have purchased since the 11th of November, which is insane. This is right after they said they’ll do the 21 + 21, 42 billion in total of a combination of ATM and convertibles. But 27,000 purchased November 11th, 52,000 November 25th, 555,000. By the way, as I’m saying this, Bitcoin just shot up $600. We’re back over $11,400. Woohoo! I feel like one of those auction people. December 2nd, 154, December 9th, 216, December 16th, 154 again. Every single week, he is buying. I could tell this week as well, he’s been ATM again to raise more cash to buy more Bitcoin. He’s going to buy as much as he can through the end of the year, and then next year, he actually indicated on the same interview that he’ll be flipping from ATM over to, guess what, convertible bonds to raise money that way instead of ATM. So there’d be less dilution, more convertible bonds that don’t actually impact dilution till 3, 4, 5 years in the future, so that’s all good news too. But it’s not just MicroStrategy, it’s not just the ETFs, there are other players too. It’s not just the United Arab Emirates potentially, allegedly. In 24 hours, just yesterday, MicroStrategy, Meta Planet, Riot, and Simar Scientific all purchased 16,352 Bitcoin, all cementing Bitcoin as their premier corporate treasury asset. These are the early worms that are catching, or the sorry, the early birds that are catching the worm, which is Bitcoin, and the rest are following. Every day there’s a new treasury, every single day, and these treasuries aren’t just in Canada, they’re not just in the US, not just in the UK, they’re also in Japan, they’re in China, they’re all over the place. It’s mad to see, it’s very exciting.
Guess what? Taking on the Saylor playbook, the treasury strategy, guess what became the number one stock in Japan in 2024? That’s when Carl Manger, Japan’s hottest stock, is a 25-year-old company that just started adopting the Bitcoin MicroStrategy playbook, and they are up 1,361% this year. Just connect the dots, everybody’s doing it. I remember the minute that was announced, I went immediately to Meta Planet, of course, no options, so you play it anyway, same with Simar too, but I have other proxies as well. That is the crazy little bit of news today. This thing is scarce. The more it goes up, the more it’s being adopted, the higher the money flows, and that crunch will happen. I don’t know when, I don’t know one more time how much what it’ll take for some of these long-term holders to start selling more, but I don’t think it matters because the amount that’s being purchased is insane by the 9 ETFs and by the Michael Saylors every week, tens of thousands of Bitcoin, and they buy all the new players as well that are coming into the play. So it’s an exciting place to be. Don’t let a little down day take you down. The future’s bright, definitely. Thanks all for coming. Hope you enjoy the Wednesday we have, and I’ll see you all tomorrow. Bye-bye, and thank you as well to the mods in the chat and everybody else. Have a good night.
Read More: $10T Crypto Market Cap in 2025? Insights from a Leading Investor
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